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This morning, a client called me and asked for some help. He needed to generate future weather files for a BREEAM certified project in Brussels (necessary for HEA04 – Thermal Comfort credit). I was happy to lend a hand!
The methodology is to use the climate change world weather file generator named CCWorldWeatherGen. It uses Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report model summary data of the HadCM3 A2 experiment ensemble and is based on the so-called ‘morphing’ methodology for climate change transformation of weather data, which was developed by Belcher, Hacker and Powell. From a present weather file (BrusselsIWEC), future weather predictions can be generated for the horizons of 2020, 2050 and 2080.
I was astonished by the magnitude of the climate change in this case. The mean dry bulb temperature is predicted to raise from 10.2°C (present) to 11.2°C by 2020, 12.3°C by 2050 and up to 14.0°C by 2080! This represents a +3.8°C elevation, much higher than the average +1.5°C under which the world’s nations committed to the COP21 in December 2015.
Another key point was the maximum temperature that rose from 34.9°C to 43.8°C and the percentage of the time the temperature was above 26°C rose from 1.1% to 5.5%. This means a drastic change in building management in terms of heating/cooling and comfort.
Just a few weeks ago, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) declared July 2016 as the hottest month on record in 136 years. So we are seeing first-hand the increase in temperature and my climate analysis for Brussels shows just how much it is set to rise.
In these conditions, how will our existing buildings behave? Should all our buildings now be designed to anticipate these forecasts? I hope the scenario is overly pessimistic but I think we need to prepare for the worst case scenario.
In the last IESVE for Architects blog post we looked at getting started with the free 30 day trial of the package. You should now have access to the software and are starting to find your way about.
This brings us on to our next post, site analysis…
Did you know within IESVE for Architects it is uniquely possible to get specific site understanding and pre-design sustainability direction without having to draw a single model line?
You can interrogate the climate and determine suitable bio-climatic architectural strategies just by setting the location and choosing a weather file, aiding the establishment of performance goals and energy efficient benchmarks such as for the building envelope, thermal comfort, visual comfort, daylight penetration and view.
Weather File Choice
The VE uses an hourly weather data file that you can select to drive its simulations. It is important you use data from a site close to and similar to yours so that the assumed impact of the sun, wind and rain etc. on your building is a close match.
Check out our Trial Support Guide for instructions on setting location and selecting weather files, and adding additional files from other sources.
Climate data can be assessed before any building has been designed. Using the VE-Gaia Navigator, Climate metrics can be analysed at a very early stage, enabling you to:
• Interrogate local climate – current & future
• Understand ASHRAE/Koeppen-Geiger climate classification
• Review Diurnal swing
• Undertake Mahoney comfort stress analysis
• Summarise relevant metrics related to climate
• Understand buildings and design responses to climate metrics
• Report on temperature, moisture/humidity, wind, precipitation, solar energy
The Support Guide shows you how to select and analyse climate metrics, climate index and climate change.
Bioclimatic Analysis is using an understanding of climate to inform building design strategy, and also a reasoned understanding of traditional or vernacular architecture.
Use the IESVE architects package to create bioclimatic reports that detail design priorities; micro-climate; urban street pattern; urban pattern; building macro form; building micro form. There are a number of suggestions given in relation to the building form; construction; window/openings; shading/protection; ventilation; passive technology; active technology and HVAC details.
So now we’ve covered getting started with the package and site analysis. Stay tuned for our next post, when we’ll look at creating geometry.
Last week, we headed to the land down under for the 12th International Conference of the International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA). From November 14th to 16th in Sydney, Australia, simulation researchers, mechanical designers, government legislators and more came together with the local simulation user community for Building Simulation 2011, co-hosted by IBPSA Australasia and the Australian Institute of Refrigeration, Air-conditioning and Heating (AIRAH).
At the conference, we showcased and provided live software demos of VE-Pro, our suite of building performance simulation tools, and VE-Gaia, our architectural analysis tool. Our experts also had the opportunity to present a couple of research papers, one of which involved a case study of the William McCormack Place Stage 2 building, a government office building in Cairns, North Queensland. This paper explored key strategies used in the HVAC systems and discussed the thermal and CFD modeling involved during the earliest stages of the building design to optimize the building’s environmental performance.
The second paper we presented described two new indices to assess and benchmark building energy performance — the Climate Energy Index (CEI) and the Building Energy Index (BEI). In a nutshell, these globally-applicable energy indices were developed as a means of quantifying the climate impact on building energy performance, and distinguishing climate-related and climate-unrelated energy end uses. Our paper specifically described the derivation of the indices calculation methods, and presented some case study results based on two types of building models.
Overall, our team had a great time at the show meeting with others involved in the building performance simulation field. Regarding the papers we presented, they will be available on our website shortly — stay tuned!
What’s the equivalent of a Prius when it comes to green buildings? Well, the answer might be The Bullitt Center in Seattle, Washington. It just broke ground last week, and aims to be the first commercial building designed to carry its own environmental weight.
What does that mean — “carry its own environmental weight”?
It means that this building is taking sustainable design to the next level. This building is designed to produce as much energy as it consumes. To provide its own water, its own sewage. If you want to drive to work, you’ll have to find an alternate parking lot. Parking at The Bullitt Center will be reserved for bikes only.
You might be scratching your head and thinking this is crazy. But this is what sustainable design is all about!
Denis Hayes, president and CEO of the Bullitt Foundation, was quoted in a Seattle Times feature about the project, saying this is what we should have been doing 5, 10 years ago.
Conventional office buildings are getting greener, Hayes acknowledges. Many developers are designing their projects with green features to qualify for LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) certification, then marketing that label prominently.
But change isn’t happening fast enough to respond to climate change and other looming environmental problems, he said: “If the world had three or four centuries to address these challenges, we would be right on track.”
So what does this mean for our industry? This will force programs like LEED to take it to the next level, and for architects and designers to really incorporate sustainable design techniques into projects.
Building owners are going to be asking for these features in their buildings. And it’s possible, we just need to keep at it.
A few weeks back, the Boston Chapter of the International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA) held a speaker session to investigate the topic of weather and building simulation. This seminar was Part 2 of the IBPSA’s “Big Uglies”. The “Big Uglies” represent four of the major unknowns in energy modelling: Occupancy, Plug Loads, Weather and Infiltration.
The group discussion was designed to tackle the impact of weather on building simulation and covered the following topics — “options for obtaining weather files for building simulation, the affects of weather on simulation results, future weather files, and related practices”.
This event caught my eye as climate and its impact on performance analysis has been on the IES agenda for a while now. Richard Quincey, Technical Director at IES explains, “To be truly sustainable, a building needs to last in excess of 100 years, and current design regulations and sustainability rating systems only require you to design against weather data that represents at best the next decade or so. Sustainable designs really need to make some assessment of the impact of climate change on determining built form suitability for the long term.”
With climate change becoming a global reality, why risk the long term performance of your building by ignoring it? A building may perform well today but it may not be able to adapt with the impact of future adverse weather conditions.
In January we teamed up with the University of Exeter to assist with their Prometheus Weather Files project. The weather files are available in .epw format for 35 locations around the UK for the 2030s, 2050s and 2080s across both high and medium emissions scenarios. The files are fully compatible with the IESVE allowing designers, architects and engineers to future weather-proof buildings and undertake comparisons between performance today and in future decades. The files are free and can be downloaded from our website.
Richard Quincey (IES) and Dr. Tristan Kershaw of the University of Exeter presented the project at this year’s Ecobuild. Highlights from the session are
available in the video below.
The United States Conference of Mayors recent Clean Energy Solutions for America’s Cities report is a summary of survey results. The U.S. Conference of Mayors is the official nonpartisan organization of cities with populations of 30,000 or more. There are more than 1,200 such cities in the country today, each represented in the Conference by its chief elected official, the Mayor.
I’ll admit, I was a bit worried to dive into the report, with visions of a glum outlook and details that reflect why this cities are not sustainable.
But I’d say things are looking pretty good!
If you want to read the entire report, you can download it here.
But the key findings sum things up quite well.
What do you think? Are our major cities on a path to a sustainable future? How can we ensure we get there? I certainly think implementing “smart” solutions within commercial buildings is a fool-proof way to ensure energy hogs such as lights and HVAC systems are kept in check, without the need for extra manpower (and extra expenses) to keep tabs during peak demand times throughout the day. But that’s just a small piece of the puzzle. There’s so much more we can do in the world of sustainable design, and we are just scratching the surface
My hope is to view this report 5, 10 years from now and see an even greater move towards sustainability.
There’s just 2 days to go until approx 7,000 events across 200 countries get underway as part of www.350.org‘s 10/10/10 Global Work Party for action on energy efficiency and climate change. It looks to be the biggest day of positive action on climate change in history so, what will you be doing?
Here at IES we’re supporting 10/10/10 by hosting a series of events including:
There are some fantastic events happening all over the world and I wanted to share some of the highlights with you:
making the bar more energy efficient. Attendees will try and drink as much as possible to raise money. Cheers!
I must say the “Joycott” in Edinburgh is my personal favourite!
Fancy being a part of it? You can Find a local event near you to see what weird and wonderful events are being held in your neighbourhood. Plus, there’s still time to register your own event so why not join in and celebrate climate change solutions? You can register your event at http://www.350.org/oct10 and if you’re looking for inspiration why not check out the 350 Action Gallery showing some amazing examples of actions that have happened already from all across the globe.
We’ll post a Blog (with photos of course!) of our very own 10.10.10 events very soon!
Earlier this year, I attended & was proud to present at The 10th REHVA World Congress — Clima 2010 in Antalya, Turkey. There were over 1,000 attendees from 56 countries at the HVAC congress. Attendees included two former ASHRAE presidents, one former CIBSE president – OBE, the current IBPSA president and the chairman of CIBSE Guide– A Steering Committee. There were 460 papers presented orally & 180 posters took place. Needless to say it was a huge success.
If you are unaware, REHVA is the Federation of European HVAC Associations and represents over 100,000 engineers from 28 European countries.
A feature of the biannual REHVA World Congress is the International student competition. Having graduated with my MSc. from Brunel University in 2009, I was asked to enter the competition. The European association I was representing was CIBSE, which I know is not specific to any one European country, but a collective nomination from the UK & Ireland nevertheless.
Apart from commending the success of the event, I wanted to blog about a fascinating project of the student competition, by Geert Filippini of Royal Haskoning in The Netherlands. Geert went on to win the competition, and deservedly so. Geert’s research work on a low energy micro-climate was very impressive. I’ve attached an image below of his built prototype which was tested in a climate chamber in the Eindhoven University of Technology.
The fresh air is being supplied directly into the microclimate of the occupant so the he/she is given a psychological feeling of being in control of his/her own environment. The radiant panel is a low energy feature (14% less energy), again because the local heating & cooling is taking place in the occupant’s working environment. A very clever idea!
I’ve analysed the concept using <VE> — MicroFlo for a typical day and the CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) analyses does also seem to certainly prove the concept.ï¿½
Please see the latest edition of the REHVA Journal & I hope to see you at the next annual conference In Tallinn in May 2011.
To be truly sustainable, a building needs to last in excess of 100 years, and current design regulations and sustainability rating systems only require you to design against weather data that represents at best the next decade or so. Sustainable designs really need to make some assessment of the impact of climate change on determining built form suitability for the long term.
Therefore, I thought I’d take this opportunity to expand on my recent Weather Design and Data blog.
IES cannot tell you what is going to happen, however there is huge consensus around a 3oC global warming target as you will have no doubt heard.Â What does this mean to building design? It seems reasonable to assume investors and insurers will consider this target and what it might mean for buildings in the future.
Let us take the CIBSE published UK weather predictions for a medium-high climate change scenario, which represents about a 3oC rise, and consider London, by far not the worst location in climate change terms, over the next 70 years.
Just glancing at the headline information you see that:
-The summer is extending and getting hotter in the Mahoney analysis (monthly average);
-The reduction in heating degree days -31% from now to 2080;
-The growth in cooling degree days + 65% from now to 2080;
-The climate classification shift — mixed humid to warm marine;
-How built form design focus shifts to be dominated by summer issues.
Just from this brief overview you can start to see how selecting and comparing weather data, especially climate change impacts, can allow you to assess fundamental built form suitability and its ability to adapt to climate change over the long term.
For locations outside of the UK this analysis is possible using morphed data from any epw weather file; a free tool allows you morph climate change scenarios worldwide.
In Architecture there is a persistent organic theme of using the environment to inform both urban and built form; obviously vernacular architecture is a demonstration of this, but in the latter half of the 20th century people have explored this theme in more detail, such that cause and effect is well explained.
In the past, greatest interest in this theme has occurred at times of energy crisis and now with climate change high on the global political and social agenda, there is a real demand for solutions that are climate responsive and adaptive to climate change. Some of this is taught in Universities and so has a familiarity especially to Architects.
The main reason why Bio-Climatic analysis has not been applied extensively in the past is due to the breadth and depth of the subject and the fact that the logic is somewhat fuzzy. Manually doing it properly is complex, difficult and very time consuming. Thus few have been able to master it and turn it to everyday use. However, the desire to utilise Bio-Climatic analysis is still alive and kicking.
Over the past few years, IES have researched this subject globally and developed the logic to a level where we can automate it, and have consequentially developed a Bio-Climatic tool, which we recently launched.
As part of the evolving VE Gaia product, Bio-Climatic analysis is used in conjunction with other Gaia tools to provide a rich source of knowledge about weather / climate data and the built environment. It delivers complex knowledge and analysis about what may be appropriate design strategies by providing a detailed list of suggestions appropriate to the specific climate data chosen.